Jul 20, 2022
RSR Unlock Schedule Analysis
Option 1 and option 2 numbers — vs trading volume
Hello — yes, it’s Wednesday and I’m not usually let out until Friday, but I’m away so there won’t be an update. I thought I put down my musings on the release schedules for RSR.
** Unofficial Numbers **
Option 1
Headline numbers :
I took the daily volume from Coinmarketcap from the end of Jan and applied the circulating supply updates from Reserve assuming we were at 13.9Bn when the release started (I’m pretty sure that’s right).
So, what do we see — first thing I noticed was that out of a total release of 27.9Bn, they could have sold 22.6Bn, and sold 5Bn. So nearly all of it could have been sold should those people have wanted to.
The second, which shows itself over time, is that most sold early on.
The custody transfer at the end of July will just be a formal passing of the tokens.
The other exciting consequence of this will be RSR rising up ‘the rankings’ (I’m afraid I don’t put much store in this as an indicator of value/revenue but that’s just me). Coinmarketcap has RSR as #162 on a marketcap of $134,180,927 at time of writing. Pop in the extra circulating supply and we have…. an Mcap of $299,501,200 assuming about 41.9Bn circulating. This would push RSR up to 108th
My guess would be that BTC is going to be a bigger influence.
Ok, so on to..
Option 2
As we can see from the average daily volume, this is in comparison a very low unlock. Again, not all will sell.
The 16.1M per day unlock is considerably lower that the daily sold from option 1.
I really see this as a bit of a nothing — yes, be wary on the initial unlock of option 2, but I suspect it won’t translate into much selling.
Given there will be a lot of expectation around mainnet, the new staking dApp and potentially news of Mexico and a Reserve card, I think it’s much more likely the market will move by ‘other means’ i.e. buy the rumour, sell the news. Not financial advice.
Wednesdays will never be the same again.
